Tied-second lowest SNP vote share in any UK GE poll by any pollster since Oct 2014.
Scotland Westminster VI (1-2 July):
SNP 35% (-2) Labour 32% (+4) Conservative 21% (+1) Lib Dem 7% (-2) Green 2% (-1) Reform 2% (-1) Other 1% (+1)
Changes +/- 3-5 June
Flavible:
Party Pred % Pred Seats SNP 35.0% 18 LAB 32.0% 29 CON 21.0% 7 LD 7.0% 5 REFUK 2.0% 0 Green 2.0% 0 Turns out I’m an idiot and Flavible do let you select Scotland Only, different story from them and the others.
PrincipleFish & ElectionPolling.co.uk
Interesting that it suggests Paisley and Renfrewshire stays SNP, with Black saying she’s stepping down I think it has a real chance of going to Labour.
I have a feeling (because I know nothing) that EC and PrincipleFish either use a uniform swing approach or a very lightly weighted model, where as Flavible and EC have an actual weighted model but even then the models can’t really account for the pull of an individual MP and their…electoral inertia?
Paisley is a real Labour target but Mhairi’s majority is big enough that it isn’t caught by uniform swings and the weighted models aren’t picking it up on these numbers probably/possibly because the model isn’t updated with he rnot standing…or, the weighting for incumbent MP and/or popular incumbent MP is basically a finger in the air educated guess from the model creator, which isn’t really a model.
But what do I know
Changes in vote share barely correlating with seat changes will never not be depressing.
It is Redfield and Wilton. They always post a more Tory biased result than anyone else whenever there is an election due.
