…the next pick to the people who saw you pick the “winner”. Now half of those people see one team, the other half see you pick the other team, and whoever saw you pick the winner thinks you’ve got a 100% accuracy rate over two games. You could do that for a while and then offer to sell your pick for the Superbowl. Starting with a big enough group in the beginning, this might be really lucrative.
But is it legal?
Well it’s not mathematically possible
The formula is p/(2^n)
P would be the number of people you start with, and n is the number of games.
If you start with the population of the US, 350 million people, you can only do this for about 28 matches before you run out of people.
If it makes any difference, American football seasons are only like 16 games.
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“only”
I’m pretty sure people would give you money after 10 correct predictions in a row. At that point there are 350k remaining.
Except for the fact that the entire rest of the population would have gotten the emails. This relies on literally nobody talking about it.
How many coincidences do you need until you believe something to be true?
Science is usually fine with a one in twenty chance (p<0.05, 5 emails) or one in one hundred (p<0.01, 7 emails). Physics is the most strict discipline and requires up to one in three hundred (p<0.003, 9 emails), or even one in a 3.5 million chance (5 sigma, p<0.0000003, 22 emails).
Sure, most mails would be caught in the spam filter anyway and you’re not gonna get emails for every single person. And if you have two mail addresses for the same person they’d immediately catch on, once the two addresses get sent different predictions.
But the point is, we are dealing with big numbers here and it is very much reasonable to expect some level of success from such a strategy.I doubt it’d be any amount of successful. And yes it’d be caught in the spam filter with the other 95% of total emails sent every day.
Here the intent is to commit fraud – deception for the purpose of financial gain. It is deception because you have knowingly misrepresented your ability to predict games, and you have gained financially by selling the pick. So it would be illegal on that basis in most if not all jurisdictions. The actual mechanism by which you create the deception or profit from it are not that important.
Moreover if you accept the money by mail or by digital means and I really wanted to hurt you (and you were in the US), I would go after you for mail fraud or wire fraud, not the scheme itself. These have very harsh penalties in the US and powerful authorities with a vested interest in keeping it that way.
(I am not a lawyer)
Is it illegal to con people
In general, yes.
Tell that to the US health insurance industry
The better way to do this is to ahead of time predict the number of games you’ll do in a row (n), and then create 2^n pseudonyms from which you post picks on a public site.
After each, abandon the pseudonyms that guessed wrong.
At the end, you’ll have one pseudonym that correctly predicted n games in a row, and especially if the public site you uploaded to has records of the times each pick was posted (or you used something like the web archive), you have a verifiable 3rd party record of getting it right that you can market to your full contact list, rather than cutting out your contacts in each round.
P.S. You could probably automate this.
Nice twist!
Let’s assume 1000 people, who are as real as the people you see around you. And Let’s also assume these people who are in the room with us right now can’t communicate with each other. You email “Team Crab will win” to 500 and “Team Monkey will win” to the other 500.
Team Monkey wins, so you send the 500 ones that saw it win another email for the next match. 250 get “Team Horse wins” and the other 250 get “Team Mr Hands wins”.
Team Horse wins, so now you have: ¼ of the people who think you have a 100% success rate over only two games so they won’t necessarily be convinced but may look at you with interest, ¼ which see you at 50% but come on it’ only 2 games, and ½ who didn’t receive your mail and are wondering what is up with that.
So let’s assume all the double-winners subscribe and so does 150 of the one-time winners. That’s 400 subscribers. However, you being a big brained individual only send an email to the 250 winners, 125 will have received “Team George W Bush will win” and the other 125 “Team Twin Towers will win”.
After George W Bush smashes the Twin Towers you will have 125 happy people, 125 sad people and 150 angry people, some of whom will sue you because you didn’t deliver the service they paid for, the other ones learn from the news of your scam and you are charged for fraud, losing all the money you made and then some, as well as go to jail where you will drop the soap and wake up in the psych ward with a funny jacket because it turns out you were hallucinating the whole time.
You realize what you’ve just done here?
To stay true, rule 34 now has to include George W Bush smashing the Twin Towers.Woah he predicted the past
But is it legal?
What law would it be breaking?
this might be really lucrative.
Not really, If you started this at the beginning of the regular NFL season and included the playoffs in the run up to the super bowl, you would need to start with 1,048,576 emails to have one person see you pick every game prior to the super bowl. And this is only if you send an email for one game each round.
If you started and sent an email to every person who watch the super bowl last year (~84 million) you would only have about 80 people left at the end and you would have sent close to a billion emails to do it.
And then you don’t even know if they bet.
What law would it be breaking?
Not sure about USA law, but in Australia we would call that “obtaining financial advantage by deception”. Otherwise known as “fraud”.
Any intentional deception for financial gain would be considered fraud in the U.K. at least.
Yes, fucking obviously it is illegal.
Search YouTube for “derren brown horse racing system” and learn from someone who did it. I believe it includes a discussion of the legality of it, at least in the UK.
Of course he did. This idea can up when we were discussing street psychics (magicians, hypnotists) like him and David Blaine.
ooh, first time I see this rare tier XKCD (<1% encounter chance!)
Only certain answer is that people looking to scam others are pieces of shit. ¯_(ツ)_/¯
I actually met somebody who had better luck predicting the winners of football games by literally throwing darts at a board than anybody else in the pool.
If there is a scheme that feels immoral and leads to you gaining money, you can bet that it could be argued as fraud in court.
Yes, pretending to be all knowing to take people’s money is fraud. No matter how cool the method to make that appearance of knowledge is.
What you really gotta argue is what youre providing is the ‘service’, they come to you for the experience of being touched by a higher power, the blessed vision of wisdom - and they simply donated to support such greatness
You forgot about ties. They’re rare, but they happen, and in this scenario they work like the 0 in Roulette - they fuck over your nice and comfy 50/50 chance.
And as others already mentioned: I’m pretty sure that whole scheme wohl just be plain fraud.
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I anal, but yes this is legal. You should do it and post the results. Also this is not investment advice.
