Volkswagen is on track for its smallest year of China sales since 2012, according to CNBC analysis of public data for the first three quarters of the year.
It’s incredible how much it’s grown in 3 years, if it keeps going like that and VW and Toyota still have no attractive EVs to offer they’ll become small players in the Chinese market.
I’m not sure I’d call barely beating Xpeng and Leapmotor in EV sales while being outsold 2 to 1 by the likes of GAC Aion and Li Auto to be sales “recovering nicely”, and that’s only because VW has been putting some huge discounts on their ID cars.
Meanwhile literally every month the domestic Chinese EV makers are introducing brand new EVs right in the same segment as the ID3/4/6, while VW has no replacement for those vehicles in sight, at least not in the next 18 to 24 months.
Compared to selling pretty much nothing and compared to their millions of ICEV sales having hit an iceberg, yes VW’s EV sales have recovered nicely. You are comparing on a completely different axis than the one I was basing my argument on.
Note the comment I responded to. It made a forward looking argument aimed at EVs. EVs is the segment of the market where VW has a positive outlook. The EV revolution is going at full steam. I argue nothing more and nothing less.
If Toyota and Honda don’t get their act together soon, they’re going to get Kodak’d. Right now, they’re still quite profitable because there’s still enough market inertia, at least in the US, for them to keep selling more ICE. But if they miss the tipping point, then they’re at risk of being too far behind to catch up.
I worked in China but left right after the initial pandemic lockdown in June 2020, back then I barely saw any electric cars on the streets (lived in a big second tier city, not 100% sure on cities like Beijing and Shanghai). Mostly buses and taxis were electric, and only partially.
Now I go on Youtube and look at footage of China’s streets and it’s completely changed.
There has been an explosion of EVs in China over the past few / couple years. Mind boggling. Its about 50/50 between ICE and new energy vehicles in cities like Shanghai in 2023 and probably will be 70/30 in favour of EVs in a couple more years.
I was in hangzhou in late 2019, and even back then I was surprised t the number of EVs. About half our taxis were EVs, all local brands. I also saw a mall dealership for XPENG, which were pretty impressive looking.
The Chinese government is pushing for green and renewable energy, it make perfect sense, they do not want to be dependent on oil/gas import. Also for the environment, the air quality is not great over there.
I believe one of my coworkers went back to China recently, and he told me even the buses are electric now.
It’s incredible how much it’s grown in 3 years, if it keeps going like that and VW and Toyota still have no attractive EVs to offer they’ll become small players in the Chinese market.
VW is actually already on the upswing again: https://carnewschina.com/2023/11/09/top-selling-car-brands-in-october-2023-in-china/
I’m not sure I’d call barely beating Xpeng and Leapmotor in EV sales while being outsold 2 to 1 by the likes of GAC Aion and Li Auto to be sales “recovering nicely”, and that’s only because VW has been putting some huge discounts on their ID cars.
Meanwhile literally every month the domestic Chinese EV makers are introducing brand new EVs right in the same segment as the ID3/4/6, while VW has no replacement for those vehicles in sight, at least not in the next 18 to 24 months.
Compared to selling pretty much nothing and compared to their millions of ICEV sales having hit an iceberg, yes VW’s EV sales have recovered nicely. You are comparing on a completely different axis than the one I was basing my argument on.
Note the comment I responded to. It made a forward looking argument aimed at EVs. EVs is the segment of the market where VW has a positive outlook. The EV revolution is going at full steam. I argue nothing more and nothing less.
If Toyota and Honda don’t get their act together soon, they’re going to get Kodak’d. Right now, they’re still quite profitable because there’s still enough market inertia, at least in the US, for them to keep selling more ICE. But if they miss the tipping point, then they’re at risk of being too far behind to catch up.
I worked in China but left right after the initial pandemic lockdown in June 2020, back then I barely saw any electric cars on the streets (lived in a big second tier city, not 100% sure on cities like Beijing and Shanghai). Mostly buses and taxis were electric, and only partially.
Now I go on Youtube and look at footage of China’s streets and it’s completely changed.
There has been an explosion of EVs in China over the past few / couple years. Mind boggling. Its about 50/50 between ICE and new energy vehicles in cities like Shanghai in 2023 and probably will be 70/30 in favour of EVs in a couple more years.
I was in hangzhou in late 2019, and even back then I was surprised t the number of EVs. About half our taxis were EVs, all local brands. I also saw a mall dealership for XPENG, which were pretty impressive looking.
The Chinese government is pushing for green and renewable energy, it make perfect sense, they do not want to be dependent on oil/gas import. Also for the environment, the air quality is not great over there.
I believe one of my coworkers went back to China recently, and he told me even the buses are electric now.
On the flip side, given China’s disastrous economic trends, it’s just as likely that China as we know it doesn’t exist in three years.
Tell someone where you get your news from without telling someone where you get your news from.
do yourself a favor and stop following MSM for anything related to China, Russia, Iran, Israel, NK.
2 more weeks!
A mighty ship can weather the storms. Never sleep on Toyota. Never sleep on Japan, for that matter.