Belgium ? 11,5 million people, 2 WC semi-finals, 1 Euro final and 1 Euro semi-final…I’d say that’s a great history for a relatively “small” country…
Imo, Belgium are currently second tier like Denmark and Croatia, but i’d say Belgium are closer to becoming a top football nation in the ( near ) future.
Facts, the Netherlands have such a good history that I forgot about them but they’re european like Denmark
3 WC finals makes them a top football nation, no question
The culture isn’t geared towards sporting prowess by and large. They have a few exceptions, but, as a culture, they emphasise other things. The oppressive system makes it hard for kids to break out of it and achieve. And it’s exactly in those places where those who are playing football will come from.
Sure, the government could throw billions at it if they want, but if kids aren’t rising to the top of the game and being supported by their nation, they aren’t going to compete. It would require a fundamental shift in how they approach sports as a whole.
Don’t forget, the limelight is on them right now but for all the press and all the attention, how many top level players can you name that are actually from Saudi Arabia that have made it in the Top leagues?
Saudi Arabian players don’t leave the Saudi leauge and it’s for a lot of reasons. 1. They get to stay in their horn Courtney 2. The pay in the Saudi leauge is good 3. They are used to playing in very hot climates so it’s harder for them to play in the cold 4. Pretty much every Saudi kid supports alhilal so it’s like a Spanish person playing for Real Madrid or Barcelona
The other points aren’t really a big factor. Is Saudi Arabia so awesome that they wouldn’t be willing to move like every other footballer on the planet?
Is AlHilal so unique in their fanbase that unlike every other footballer on the planet they’d refuse to play for anyone else?
Alhilal is like the Real Madrid of Asia and yes as a Saudi Arabian you couldn’t pay me to move to the Uk or Spain or France or Italy or the USA. And yes I have been to all of those country’s multiple times
People sleeping on USA. We have 2 and 3 and 1 is coming along just nicely. We had NOTHING 30 years ago. Many youth clubs started in the late 80s as a part of our World Cup bid. Todays teenagers are the first whose parents grew up with the sport.
Don’t think we will win in the next 20 years but we are closer to overcoming the cultural roadblock than African countries are to solving their infrastructure issues.
Nah bro not sleeping on them, there is literally no culture or understanding of the sport.
It will take being way more humble as a nation to follow up and support a sport where there won’t be any wins in the short or middle term that I just dont see it happening as a country.
They just watch the World Cup and get pissed when they are eliminated as if it was a surprise. The general misunderstanding of people when America loss to Belgium as if they just got upsetted said a lot.
For what it’s worth, I’m an American who has lived in Europe for the last 15 years. I see huge potential for the US team to get better if we can seriously reform our current model of youth club football. In the current model, most good prospects have to sign up for local club travel teams—bottom line, these are expensive for parents, in terms of expenses and time commitment. Immediately, this prices out a bunch of familles, with parents and their promising child athletes naturally veering to sports that are subsidized more, culturally entrenched, or have a longer track record of pathways in America. We have to find a way to financially support and train without the excessive cost to your average family, and early enough in their development that they won’t veer away into to other sports.
Your infrastructure in the game is fundamentally flawed because it follows the models of other more popular sports and relies on student athletes and foreign imports.
Your population is larger, but your best athletes aren’t playing football.
And 1 has a ceiling. It will never be anywhere close to the other major sports.
That’s not to say the US can’t be a competitive force, but, a fluke notwithstanding, they just don’t have the interest, skill or infrastructure required to be a serious threat.
The current US squad and recent call ups is basically made up of three types of player:
Collegiate athletes come good.
Foreign players who aren’t quite good enough for their home/ancestral country so play for the US.
Players who grew up playing for local clubs and then youth academies (which is how it happens in Europe and South America).
Right now it’s a faily even balance between all three. This suggests collegiate athletes still play a big part in their system, but they are slowly but surely switching to a grassroots and academy system, but for now need to supplement with foreign talent.
Only in the sense that winning any knockout competition requires an element of luck. But I think we can sensibly agree that countries can plan and intend to compete for these competitions with serious intent?
Lol Even if was the number one sport in the us they still would be nothing in football. They play in the concacaf against weak teams while other countries in Europe and South America face much tougher competition playing against each other. If the level of your competition is low the quality of your game tends to stay low if is high tends to stay to get better
Their culture is ambilivent towards football at best, even now during a peak, their best athletes don’t play football and they still use the collegiate system to nurture talent, which might be great for domestic sports but doesn’t help and actually might even hinder the ability to be competitive at the top level.
The best US football players at 20 years old don’t want to be playing for a university, not if they actually want to achieve anything.
I know they are starting to move away from that because they recognise the global nature of football means the same system used in gridiron doesn’t translate well to football but, its a slow process and won’t be eradicated completely as it goes all the way to grassroots. In most communities, kids aren’t playing football at 5 years old like they are in Europe.
I’m not saying the US WILL win in my lifetime, but of your infrastructure points are absolutely an outdated view of the top end of the USA player pipeline. There are top players coming out of well run MLS academies. I won’t me all of them, but Alphonso Davies, and I stress might be one of the best left backs in the world, and Vancouver isn’t even particularly well run.
Couple that with a USSF rule chance that any U12 games at any level, heading of the ball is a spot foul, which should help produce more players with technical skills at a younger level.
At no point am I saying your wrong the USA has a long way to go, but the points you have used aren’t exactly the reasons why
I’m aware he’s Canadian but Vancouver is an MLS club. Tyler Adams, gio Reyna, they Aaronson brothers, Weston McKennie, all have MLS academy roots. There’s tons more. I used AD as an example of the level of players coming from the US based system. And honestly, you probably knew that and came across as purposely obtuse to reiterate your false narrative. Again, we aren’t putting players out at a level like Brazil, Portugal, the Dutch etc, but to state we have no interest, or investment in soccer is demonstrably false
I think your points are fair, but I don’t see anyone else other than a European or South American team winning the world cup in the next 20-30 years.
Over those longer time frames, who knows what the culture will be in the US, especially after the world cup there in a few years. With Messi in the MLS and the premier league growing, it seems on an upwards trend. That is why I said I thought they still had the most potential to win it, if things ever do finally click for them.
They said the same thing after The World Cup in 1994, it’s been 30 years later and you get the same old results. Who knows, maybe you’re right? I’d like to see it, But I wouldn’t bet on it because I believe culture is the key and the US doesn’t have that. The NFL and NBA are king and they get the best athletes, heck even track and field too. It’s an uphill battle between Football (American) Basketball, Hockey, Baseball, Golf, Track and field, tennis, XGames etc. Other countries really don’t have to compete with that many other sports
I think that there are gonna be fewer and fewer young kids playing American football due to more and more data about CTE coming out. I’m hoping this will lead to more interest in soccer because we certainly have the athletes to compete. We just need to keep building a strong youth foundation. But I’m not naive enough to think that’s gonna happen anytime soon. I think it will happen eventually, but it may be another 50 years.
South America produces the most talent and Europe draws players from all over the world to their national teams. I really don’t see anyone getting close outside of USA and Mexico.
This would all be true if we were talking in 2010. On our current national team, I believe only two players played college ball, Tim Ream who is like 36 and from that era, and Matt Turner who was a super late bloomer. Hardly any serious professional players play college anymore. We have academies just like Europe, they’re just newer. Children also play here at 5 years old, if not younger. Soccer/football is one if the biggest sports here, especially amongst younger people, and even if it’s not #1 or “as popular as it is in Europe” there’s already more football fans in America than there is in Belgium for example.
We are a long way off winning a World Cup, but out of any non-European and Southamerican team, I’d say we are next to win it. Japan, Nigeria, Mexico, and maybe some middle east countries also could.
No one is the USMNT camp played collegiate soccer in the USA. Just saying.
Also, for a country that is fanatic when it comes to sports, they produce so many athletes that “the best” don’t have to play football for them to eventually put out a team capable of winning something big in the right circumstances.
It’s that you can’t be a pro and play college. The high school / college system in the Us hinders development massively. I even find it strange when here in the states people brag that they played college. Usually it’s guys that are incredible athletes with literally 0 ability. I went to a random corner in Brasil to play and out of the 25 people I saw play, 2 were by far better than anyone I’ve ever met in the USA that wasnt a professional player in South America. The level gap is that high. In Chile I saw a random 7v7 match. 4 or 5 of the 14 were better than anyone I’ve played with 7v7 in the US. The talent gap is insane
But most of them weren’t even born or raised in the US. Which strengthens my point - American kids aren’t playing football like they play other sports.
Nah, I guess they have the population but so do China and India?
The US soccer system is absolute trash, you have to travel for hours or move, and pay thousands of dollars a year to play at a reasonable level as a kid. It also used to be athletes was prized the most, so the top teams were just kids who hit puberty early. There is also a mentality that multi-sport athletes were desirable while kids in other countries just play soccer, playing div 1 college delay’s going pro even more, and lots of political stuff to get on teams (which does occur in other countries).
The problem with Ghana, Senegal, and Cameroon is the rampant corruption at all levels of government. It might seem irrelevant, but it’s not. That much corruption means investment suffers, especially as in those countries, there isn’t a lot of money to go around.
When you have people dying of preventable diseases, forgotten communities surviving on bushmeat and entire regions descending into open warfare, investing in the national football program is a low priority. Investing in football at youth level, which is equally as important, is non existent.
Costa Rica are just too small to overcome the lack of infrastructure.
USA will never be a serious threat so long as their best athletes choose other sports and their kids at 5-10 years old are playing with hockey sticks and basketballs instead of a football.
Tunisia was added to this list because they have invested heavily in their domestic football program but, upon reflection, I might actually remove them.
I get that, but I think the first non-european and non-south-american team to win will be an underdog who organised their team well and also got lucky - just like Greece at Euro 2004. Greece were huge underdogs and their odds were some of the longest at the tournament. I think any of those teams could do that, or maybe also someone like Nigeria or Japan.
It might take 100 years or it might happen in the next decade, but it’ll happen sooner or later.
to your USA point. I don’t think we need our best athletes. but our best soccer players. and less focus on the physical at younger ages. lot’s of stories of the tall 12 year old who can kick it a mile but nothing else getting the A team while the shorter 12 year old who keeps the ball glued to his foot gets B team or nothing.
I was arguing against some dudes from LIGAMX, saying how Mexicos results have been pathetic considering the points you stated, population, money involved and cultural love.
Some dudes couldnt get trough their heads that the population pool had something to do with it.
Th fourth criteria needed is referees that are truly neutral. There’s a lot of subconscious favouring of established teams. Harder for fans of traditional teams to realise but every obvious to non Europe and non south American fans
It will likely be a team that has all three:
A culture who loves, or at the minimum embraces, football.
A country that has infrastructure and investment in the game.
A country that has a reasonable size population (and therefore a wider talent pool).
I come out at Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Tunisia or Morocco.
Tunisia is a tiny country (10 million people) like Switzerland and Sweden. Only Croatia and Uruguay had insane runs as tiny countries
Belgium ? 11,5 million people, 2 WC semi-finals, 1 Euro final and 1 Euro semi-final…I’d say that’s a great history for a relatively “small” country…
Imo, Belgium are currently second tier like Denmark and Croatia, but i’d say Belgium are closer to becoming a top football nation in the ( near ) future.
True, Tier 1 : Netherlands (18 million people is kinda big), Uruguay Tier 2 : Belgium, Croatia (4 million people), Portugal?
Yeah, sounds about right.
Both Belgium and Portugal have the potential to reach tier 1 imo.
What’s with the Netherlands and Denmark?
Facts, the Netherlands have such a good history that I forgot about them but they’re european like Denmark 3 WC finals makes them a top football nation, no question
Saudi Arabia
Eh.
The culture isn’t geared towards sporting prowess by and large. They have a few exceptions, but, as a culture, they emphasise other things. The oppressive system makes it hard for kids to break out of it and achieve. And it’s exactly in those places where those who are playing football will come from.
Sure, the government could throw billions at it if they want, but if kids aren’t rising to the top of the game and being supported by their nation, they aren’t going to compete. It would require a fundamental shift in how they approach sports as a whole.
Don’t forget, the limelight is on them right now but for all the press and all the attention, how many top level players can you name that are actually from Saudi Arabia that have made it in the Top leagues?
Saudi Arabian players don’t leave the Saudi leauge and it’s for a lot of reasons. 1. They get to stay in their horn Courtney 2. The pay in the Saudi leauge is good 3. They are used to playing in very hot climates so it’s harder for them to play in the cold 4. Pretty much every Saudi kid supports alhilal so it’s like a Spanish person playing for Real Madrid or Barcelona
There are countries where it is still very hot and pay more.
If they had good players, you’d see them in the top leagues.
Okay so you focus on 2 points and completely ignore the other 2 points that are much more important?
The other points aren’t really a big factor. Is Saudi Arabia so awesome that they wouldn’t be willing to move like every other footballer on the planet?
Is AlHilal so unique in their fanbase that unlike every other footballer on the planet they’d refuse to play for anyone else?
Alhilal is like the Real Madrid of Asia and yes as a Saudi Arabian you couldn’t pay me to move to the Uk or Spain or France or Italy or the USA. And yes I have been to all of those country’s multiple times
Nigeria has 1 and 3, but not 2 cuz our government is wildly incompetent, unfortunately
you have a big diaspora though, so they could get a few players playing for them that grew up with world class infrastructure
People sleeping on USA. We have 2 and 3 and 1 is coming along just nicely. We had NOTHING 30 years ago. Many youth clubs started in the late 80s as a part of our World Cup bid. Todays teenagers are the first whose parents grew up with the sport.
Don’t think we will win in the next 20 years but we are closer to overcoming the cultural roadblock than African countries are to solving their infrastructure issues.
Nah bro not sleeping on them, there is literally no culture or understanding of the sport.
It will take being way more humble as a nation to follow up and support a sport where there won’t be any wins in the short or middle term that I just dont see it happening as a country.
They just watch the World Cup and get pissed when they are eliminated as if it was a surprise. The general misunderstanding of people when America loss to Belgium as if they just got upsetted said a lot.
For what it’s worth, I’m an American who has lived in Europe for the last 15 years. I see huge potential for the US team to get better if we can seriously reform our current model of youth club football. In the current model, most good prospects have to sign up for local club travel teams—bottom line, these are expensive for parents, in terms of expenses and time commitment. Immediately, this prices out a bunch of familles, with parents and their promising child athletes naturally veering to sports that are subsidized more, culturally entrenched, or have a longer track record of pathways in America. We have to find a way to financially support and train without the excessive cost to your average family, and early enough in their development that they won’t veer away into to other sports.
Your infrastructure in the game is fundamentally flawed because it follows the models of other more popular sports and relies on student athletes and foreign imports.
Your population is larger, but your best athletes aren’t playing football.
And 1 has a ceiling. It will never be anywhere close to the other major sports.
That’s not to say the US can’t be a competitive force, but, a fluke notwithstanding, they just don’t have the interest, skill or infrastructure required to be a serious threat.
Who in the current usmnt was a student athlete?
Matt Turner, Miles Robinson, Tim Ream.
Ha! Nah you’re right, I’m wrong.
I will say most of those are nobodies that will probably never see significant minutes for the USMNT and Tim Ream is almost a closed chapter.
turner being the best keeper is an embarrassment considering he didn’t even play the sport till he was what… 18?
Well if anything it proves my point.
The current US squad and recent call ups is basically made up of three types of player:
Collegiate athletes come good.
Foreign players who aren’t quite good enough for their home/ancestral country so play for the US.
Players who grew up playing for local clubs and then youth academies (which is how it happens in Europe and South America).
Right now it’s a faily even balance between all three. This suggests collegiate athletes still play a big part in their system, but they are slowly but surely switching to a grassroots and academy system, but for now need to supplement with foreign talent.
A
A fluke notwithstanding? Literally every single answer in this thread would have to be a fluke, that’s the whole point…
Only in the sense that winning any knockout competition requires an element of luck. But I think we can sensibly agree that countries can plan and intend to compete for these competitions with serious intent?
Surely the USA? They are the big one for me, if things click they easily have the most potential of anyone.
Lol Even if was the number one sport in the us they still would be nothing in football. They play in the concacaf against weak teams while other countries in Europe and South America face much tougher competition playing against each other. If the level of your competition is low the quality of your game tends to stay low if is high tends to stay to get better
Already addressed it elsewhere, but no.
Their culture is ambilivent towards football at best, even now during a peak, their best athletes don’t play football and they still use the collegiate system to nurture talent, which might be great for domestic sports but doesn’t help and actually might even hinder the ability to be competitive at the top level.
The best US football players at 20 years old don’t want to be playing for a university, not if they actually want to achieve anything.
I know they are starting to move away from that because they recognise the global nature of football means the same system used in gridiron doesn’t translate well to football but, its a slow process and won’t be eradicated completely as it goes all the way to grassroots. In most communities, kids aren’t playing football at 5 years old like they are in Europe.
I’m not saying the US WILL win in my lifetime, but of your infrastructure points are absolutely an outdated view of the top end of the USA player pipeline. There are top players coming out of well run MLS academies. I won’t me all of them, but Alphonso Davies, and I stress might be one of the best left backs in the world, and Vancouver isn’t even particularly well run.
Couple that with a USSF rule chance that any U12 games at any level, heading of the ball is a spot foul, which should help produce more players with technical skills at a younger level.
At no point am I saying your wrong the USA has a long way to go, but the points you have used aren’t exactly the reasons why
Well, Alphonso Davies is Canadian, and also from a family of immigrants from a country who are mad about football.
An outlier, and he isn’t even part if tbe US team because he’s Canadian.
I’m aware he’s Canadian but Vancouver is an MLS club. Tyler Adams, gio Reyna, they Aaronson brothers, Weston McKennie, all have MLS academy roots. There’s tons more. I used AD as an example of the level of players coming from the US based system. And honestly, you probably knew that and came across as purposely obtuse to reiterate your false narrative. Again, we aren’t putting players out at a level like Brazil, Portugal, the Dutch etc, but to state we have no interest, or investment in soccer is demonstrably false
Yeah but the football system he grew up in, the sporting culture he grew up in, was Canadian, not American.
I think your points are fair, but I don’t see anyone else other than a European or South American team winning the world cup in the next 20-30 years.
Over those longer time frames, who knows what the culture will be in the US, especially after the world cup there in a few years. With Messi in the MLS and the premier league growing, it seems on an upwards trend. That is why I said I thought they still had the most potential to win it, if things ever do finally click for them.
They said the same thing after The World Cup in 1994, it’s been 30 years later and you get the same old results. Who knows, maybe you’re right? I’d like to see it, But I wouldn’t bet on it because I believe culture is the key and the US doesn’t have that. The NFL and NBA are king and they get the best athletes, heck even track and field too. It’s an uphill battle between Football (American) Basketball, Hockey, Baseball, Golf, Track and field, tennis, XGames etc. Other countries really don’t have to compete with that many other sports
I think that there are gonna be fewer and fewer young kids playing American football due to more and more data about CTE coming out. I’m hoping this will lead to more interest in soccer because we certainly have the athletes to compete. We just need to keep building a strong youth foundation. But I’m not naive enough to think that’s gonna happen anytime soon. I think it will happen eventually, but it may be another 50 years.
South America produces the most talent and Europe draws players from all over the world to their national teams. I really don’t see anyone getting close outside of USA and Mexico.
This would all be true if we were talking in 2010. On our current national team, I believe only two players played college ball, Tim Ream who is like 36 and from that era, and Matt Turner who was a super late bloomer. Hardly any serious professional players play college anymore. We have academies just like Europe, they’re just newer. Children also play here at 5 years old, if not younger. Soccer/football is one if the biggest sports here, especially amongst younger people, and even if it’s not #1 or “as popular as it is in Europe” there’s already more football fans in America than there is in Belgium for example.
We are a long way off winning a World Cup, but out of any non-European and Southamerican team, I’d say we are next to win it. Japan, Nigeria, Mexico, and maybe some middle east countries also could.
No one is the USMNT camp played collegiate soccer in the USA. Just saying.
Also, for a country that is fanatic when it comes to sports, they produce so many athletes that “the best” don’t have to play football for them to eventually put out a team capable of winning something big in the right circumstances.
It’s that you can’t be a pro and play college. The high school / college system in the Us hinders development massively. I even find it strange when here in the states people brag that they played college. Usually it’s guys that are incredible athletes with literally 0 ability. I went to a random corner in Brasil to play and out of the 25 people I saw play, 2 were by far better than anyone I’ve ever met in the USA that wasnt a professional player in South America. The level gap is that high. In Chile I saw a random 7v7 match. 4 or 5 of the 14 were better than anyone I’ve played with 7v7 in the US. The talent gap is insane
That’s not true. 3 of the current squad did.
But most of them weren’t even born or raised in the US. Which strengthens my point - American kids aren’t playing football like they play other sports.
I think soccer is the most played sport by kids at that age in America.
Yeah, but they don’t stick with it.
The best thing that can happen for US football is for NCAA to drop the sport for men
Nah, I guess they have the population but so do China and India?
The US soccer system is absolute trash, you have to travel for hours or move, and pay thousands of dollars a year to play at a reasonable level as a kid. It also used to be athletes was prized the most, so the top teams were just kids who hit puberty early. There is also a mentality that multi-sport athletes were desirable while kids in other countries just play soccer, playing div 1 college delay’s going pro even more, and lots of political stuff to get on teams (which does occur in other countries).
I can tell you right now if Mexico was to win a WC it won’t be anytime soon. They look so bad right now.
If you want to bet on a team to lose in the first knockout round, Mexico is your side.
Mexico broke that streak in Qatar with a first-round elimination.
If we look at the last 50 years, the teams who have made it to the quarter finals or further are:
Mexico
USA
South Korea
Cameroon
Costa Rica
Morocco
Ghana
Senegal
It’s very similar to your list!
North Korea reached the World Cup Quarter-Final in 1966 as well
The problem with Ghana, Senegal, and Cameroon is the rampant corruption at all levels of government. It might seem irrelevant, but it’s not. That much corruption means investment suffers, especially as in those countries, there isn’t a lot of money to go around.
When you have people dying of preventable diseases, forgotten communities surviving on bushmeat and entire regions descending into open warfare, investing in the national football program is a low priority. Investing in football at youth level, which is equally as important, is non existent.
Costa Rica are just too small to overcome the lack of infrastructure.
USA will never be a serious threat so long as their best athletes choose other sports and their kids at 5-10 years old are playing with hockey sticks and basketballs instead of a football.
Tunisia was added to this list because they have invested heavily in their domestic football program but, upon reflection, I might actually remove them.
I get that, but I think the first non-european and non-south-american team to win will be an underdog who organised their team well and also got lucky - just like Greece at Euro 2004. Greece were huge underdogs and their odds were some of the longest at the tournament. I think any of those teams could do that, or maybe also someone like Nigeria or Japan.
It might take 100 years or it might happen in the next decade, but it’ll happen sooner or later.
Unless it’s corrupted towards football
Yeah, but none of those are. Not to the point that the money gets to anywhere useful to actually producing a team.
to your USA point. I don’t think we need our best athletes. but our best soccer players. and less focus on the physical at younger ages. lot’s of stories of the tall 12 year old who can kick it a mile but nothing else getting the A team while the shorter 12 year old who keeps the ball glued to his foot gets B team or nothing.
I remember all of them being in the quarter finals except from Costa Rica.
I was arguing against some dudes from LIGAMX, saying how Mexicos results have been pathetic considering the points you stated, population, money involved and cultural love.
Some dudes couldnt get trough their heads that the population pool had something to do with it.
I would love for Japan to win a WC
The winner will be from Europe or South America for the foreseeable future, it will take a long time to close the gap.
I agree, I didn’t say it was likely, just that if it were to happen, these countries would be my bet.
I know Mexico is technically North America but I feel like they’re culturally southern.
I think the USA has more of a chance long term
They might be culturally, but they aren’t actually.
And US will never compete so long as their kids choose other sports.
Nah fam, you must be American if you actually believe that.
The average American has no clue what the champions league even is.
English mate. USA are already a good team and will only get better
I agree with your statement.
No World Cup contenders tho, there is a big difference between being a good team and one that may actually win it all.
It only takes looking at Mls scheduling to understand American stubbornness and lack of understanding of the sport.
Th fourth criteria needed is referees that are truly neutral. There’s a lot of subconscious favouring of established teams. Harder for fans of traditional teams to realise but every obvious to non Europe and non south American fans
I’d discard Mexico for points 1, 2 and 4.
Corruption and plutocracy prevent Mexico from being a veritable World Cup contender.