• rabbitwonker@alien.topB
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    1 year ago

    Several years ago I made the following prediction for the auto market post-2030:

    40% Chinese automakers
    20% Tesla
    40% Everyone else

    We seem to be on track. Maybe a little overly generous on the third point.

      • rabbitwonker@alien.topB
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        1 year ago

        Quite possibly, but if the total passenger-vehicle market were to remain at 2022’s 57.5 million, Tesla would need 11.5M unit sales to be 20% of that, while their aspirational goal remains at 20M by 2030.

        Given how much the legacy automakers are scaling back their EV plans recently, while Tesla simply predicts somewhat lower than 50% growth for now, the needle is pointing more in the direction of my prediction than it was even 6 months ago.