Companies will never renounce to slave labor
If china invades taiwan, it will be 2033 until generational gains again match the 4090.
I kinda have a feeling the next ten years wont be business as usual.
I think samsung would be able to pick up the slack pretty quick seeing as they already have 3nm while the 4000 series is on 4nm. There would be a supply shortage for a few years though.
Samsung and Intel have the tech to replace TSMC, but they do not have the volume.
thats why we need to start NOW
Must be music to Intel’s ears
Dude in 20 years we’ll all be dead between the micro/nano plastics, pfas, climate change, and thermal nuclear war.
Sir, It’s time for your haloperidol. Please take it.
People have been saying at least 2 of those things for many decades now, so far it hasn’t happened. What’s 2 more… or 4 or 6 more (you left some obvious ones out)?
Best to put those worries aside, bc if one doesn’t, why do anything?
Good question, considering to advancements of “AI” leading to huge destruction of society.
/r/Collapse is leaking.
That sub is a wild ride
At this point he might be moving even chip design out of US to avoid getting caught in geopolitical mess.
Huang is talking about complete independence, not just leading edge node production like i’ve seen many people assume based on the headline. Achieving this in 10-20 years with the volume of components needed is actually pretty optimistic.
Huang explained that Nvidia’s products rely on countless components from around the world, not just Taiwan, although Nvidia’s most important components are made in Taiwan.
“We are still 10 to 20 years away from achieving supply chain independence,” Huang said.
The truth is, the U.S. and other countries dont really want to create (and spend) for complete chip independence, they just dont want to depend on Taiwan and China. Outside of wartime production, chips would just be sourced from the U.S. and trading partners like Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Ireland, Germany.
I thought it was mostly component issues. Like, Intel has fabs in the US… but all the other stuff, all the components, probably even the silicon ingots wafers are cut from are made where they’re cheap to make, where all the integrators, all the board makers are… Asia…
Isn’t it reliant on places like Israel, Taiwan, and South Korea? And how many of those places invested in such capacities to guarantee a degree of US protection and involvement.
What do Israel and South Korea make that is so unique? I’m pretty sure the primary dependency is on Taiwan (specifically TSMC), which itself has a dependency on technology from the Netherlands (specifically ASML) and supply from China.
isreal is where intel’s test fab and cpu engineering teams are
Israel has a lot of Intel’s fabs and South Korea has a lot of Samsung’s fabs. Losing any one of the three would lead to a chip shortage and economic disaster, but Taiwan is usually the one that’s talked about, because it’s the one in potential geopolitical jeopardy.
Don’t know about South Korea, but both intel and Nvidia are heavily invested in Israel (Intel does chip assembly in Israel and Nvidia has a number of AI focused projects there)
South Korea is the second most advanced fab nation, and they are also very involved in some parts of the supply chain even for TSMC manufactured parts - e.g. SK Hynix does a lot of the CoWoS packaging.
Also, South Korea produces a lot of RAM, Solid State Drives, and many other things like display panels.
Mostly Taiwan. South Korea doesn’t do it for protection, if it did well they screwed up badly because samsung botched their nodes even worse than intel did for years.
Intel is reliant on Israel for engineers. Very difficult to replace and unlikely that they would move over to the US. The brain drain in the US is real in part thanks to EE wages not matching up with booming software engineering wages and the US treating manufacturing like an afterthought in general.
South Korea does do it in some part for protection in my opinion. North Korea are a very unpleasant neighbour, allied with China, and SK depends on US support as a deterrent. The primary benefit is that it’s the heart of their economy, but I believe that defence is also a factor.
Being at a critical part of many crucial supply chains means that the US has a very strong interest in making sure SK keeps producing. Even if you look at advanced products mostly made in Taiwan - e.g. the nvidia H100s, the CoWoS packaging is done by SK Hynix.
The issue is that Russia has shown us that they don’t give a shit about how large the benefit is, they would rather be imperially hostile. Germany and the EU thought that hundreds of billions in trade would be enough to deter Russia, but it clearly wasn’t.
The West is now, rightfully so, worried that China is thinking the same way in regards to Taiwan.
To be fair to Russia I think they envisioned a complete rolling of Ukraine, if they had known that it in fact would be a 2 year+ long war leaving 150k of their men dead and most of the equipment depleted they’d have maybe not done it.
The reality is that you’re going to see more places investing in these capabilities now, precisely because the chip shortage has shown how critical these capabilities are.
The ability to manufacture these is no longer simply an economic consideration. For countries that can afford it, it is a security consideration as well, and that changes the calculus of how much they’re willing to invest in their own industries and infrastructure.
On the other hand, thinking that putting in a bit of money in is going to make a difference is wishful thinking. The US put tens of billions into the CHIPS act, but this is a one-time off thing. Taiwan and TSMC invests tens of billions every year to keep its edge, and has been doing so for decades.
Wrong, that’s not what he meant at all. There is zero chance leading nodes will be produced in the US within a decade. There is no talent in the US and they cannot convince the Taiwanese engineers to come here.
No talent in the US? You know that Intel has it’s fabs in the US, right? Just a few years ago they were definitely the #1 fabs, and the way things are looking I would say they definitely have a shot at taking the crown back.
The US graduates vastly fewer electrical engineers than any other comparably large nation. We are about equal to Iran. The idea of moving semi manufacturing here is about as likely as it going to Iran. I am sure you just assumed that the US is the best at everything (or even most things) and this is a shock to you but please look it up. It is a fact that the US is a third tier nation at best in engineering and it has been that way since the 80s
Wrong, that’s not what he meant at all. There is zero chance leading nodes will be produced in the US within a decade. There is no talent in the US and they cannot convince the Taiwanese engineers to come here.
Why’d they come? Aren’t US workers supposedly lazy and entitled because they have coffee breaks and go to the bathroom sometimes? Talk about a culture shock…
US workers are not lazy but they are relatively uneducated and expensive, which is why other countries prefer not to use them
US workers are not lazy but they are relatively uneducated and expensive, which is why other countries prefer not to use them
They’re expensive because they prefer to enjoy one of the grand luxuries of modern lifestyles, often referred to as a “work-life balance”
I’m sure those Taiwanese workers living in hostels with 12 hour shifts ought to educate themselves a little about that.
What is going to happen if there was a war between US and China? I’ve assumed to this point the US was trying to rush chip manufacturing because it could be a disaster for the west if we went to war.
I can think of 100 things to worry about more if there’s actually a war between the US and China.
Do we even have 10-20 years of advanced nodes?
Yes, but not node shrink, there is a lot of inventions in package technology still waiting. 3d cache was one of them and it give us more then node shrink
Sure, if you keep doing your best to remain in China.