Even if the general were like, a week after they both died in a freakish accident? I guess they can always post pone the general though. I’m not sure who would have to make the call or if there are rules in place for DNC or GOP
There is a significant non-zero probability that any given week of theirs, is there last week.
I mean how many years do we think either of these two has left?
2? 3? and it doesn’t have to be 🛴🪣 , just total mental or physical degradation.
So what they’ve got maybe 100, 200 weeks ahead of them max? Assuming a uniform probability distribution, that’s a charitable 0.25% per week (and I do not believe its a uniform distribution), 40 weeks till the election, call it a %0.25 for either of them individually to kick the bucket: I get 18.14% probability that either one of the two 🛴🪣 in the next 40 weeks. Like its not crazy, they are old af.
I’m sure a student of geriatrics could get us some more informed priors, but I bet thats in the ball park.
Even if the general were like, a week after they both died in a freakish accident? I guess they can always post pone the general though. I’m not sure who would have to make the call or if there are rules in place for DNC or GOP
I mean, these fuckers are old.
Like way fucking old.
There is a significant non-zero probability that any given week of theirs, is there last week.
I mean how many years do we think either of these two has left?
2? 3? and it doesn’t have to be 🛴🪣 , just total mental or physical degradation.
So what they’ve got maybe 100, 200 weeks ahead of them max? Assuming a uniform probability distribution, that’s a charitable 0.25% per week (and I do not believe its a uniform distribution), 40 weeks till the election, call it a %0.25 for either of them individually to kick the bucket: I get 18.14% probability that either one of the two 🛴🪣 in the next 40 weeks. Like its not crazy, they are old af.
I’m sure a student of geriatrics could get us some more informed priors, but I bet thats in the ball park.