People tend to think of an eventual us-china war as a deathmatch scenario where we see troops on the ground clashing around cities and whatnot. This won’t be the case. The only battlefield is the western pacific, to which china is much closer. The US could keep dominance here as long as it had the edge in naval tonnage and tech - now that it doesn’t, it’s objectively not even a contest. IF, IF china decides to strike, all it has to do is send a salvo of ballistic missiles on the main island bases and make use of their ample anti-ship missile inventory to allow their numerically superior navy to pick off american vessels.
You can (and should) check out recent wargames, blue consistently loses and (i shit you not) they sometimes repeat the game with new rules in order to give blue a chance. Some common themes are american planes performing decently in the air but getting destroyed in scores while on the ground, unsustainable logistics, and nearly defenseless aircraft carrier groups. The island chain strategy was formulated with cold war era tech, it’s just not up to par in the modern world where drones and guided missiles can strike anywhere at anytime. Kind of like Russia had to learn the hard way that tank columns get rekt by any idiot with a 80$ drone or a javelin.
Years of US hegemony kind of portrayed a different reality, but the matter of fact is that the closest territory to china the US can logistically and tactically HOPE to defend properly is hawaii.
Kind of like Russia had to learn the hard way that tank columns get rekt by any idiot with a 80$ drone or a javelin.
I have to ask if you mean something specific. Some particular incident.
I don’t know about China, but the US rhetoric on the matter feels like we’re hyping ourselves up for an extermination campaign. That war will be cataclysmic because it’s going to be a matter of survival.
Tbh think that that kind of rethoric has been a thing in every conflict since ever, countries need to justify war by talking to the enemy as if it is an existential threat which will destroy us if we don’t destroy them first.
Countries at war or preparing to be generally talk about how the other nation is a threat for the current international political order, how they are a threat to our “way of life” and “culture”, how it is a “terrorists regime” or whatever… All stuff that implies a need to strike first before too much damage is done, it implies that fighting is a necessity. People are not going to be persuaded to enlist by saying “china is kind of minding his buisness but if the MIC manages to get us into a war with them we might have to defend a couple of island bases thousands of kms away from here”
To that i would add that by now we have it on good faith that people are not going to nuke each other. Just like they didn’t in the cold war, even if at points it felt almost certain that nukes were gonna fly
I don’t feel the question really is if China can win a hot or economic war with the US. It is is there will be anything left of the humanity or world at that point.
Whether it be nuclear holocaust, biological plague, environmental degradation to the point of human extinction, or climate change; I can envision many scenarios where either everyone loses, or China wins nothing but a pyrrhic victory.
Oh boy am I glad we are all getting a resurgence of interest on military theory recently.
I am with the assumption we are speaking economically and geopolitically too, duh.
Now other than nukes, which is a loss for everyone, I don’t see a scenario where China loses either. I don’t think the question is if China can win, it is can it win before climate change destroys humanity.
We can see already China emerging as the leading power. Peace deals in the middle east which feel like they came from nowhere from the major regional powers. Now European leaders are making visits to Beijing to discuss solutions for the Ukraine conflict. Even the Ukrainian government is shy to criticize China’s close relationship with Russia, due to their hopes of economic rebuilding. THE FUCKING FACIST PUPPET STATE WITH THE US COMMANDING IT!
I believe with China now truly established as a DOTP and soon to be leading power, it will guide the intertwined multipolar world against the new threat of natural disaster. In a way mirroring the struggle of primitive communism, it will once again be humans vs nature, except it will be trying to.
Though most of the periphery is becoming more stable with industrialization and nationalization, the core is becoming increasingly unstable while deindustrialized and privatized. They have switched places in a way. And that is right as we are tipping over the edge of Western economic collapse.
With the rolling back of child labor laws, women and queer rights disappearing, continued ecological destruction, decaying infrastructure and industry, economic collapse, and Florida to vanguard fascism in the states. Are we at a point to see the possibility of a Protracted Peoples War? With its balkanization seeming eminent, huge swaths of a mountainous terrain, and easy access to firearms, are the proletarian forces able to carry out an organized armed struggle?
I am under the impression, the left in the core will form as two intertwined groups, Indigenous Liberation and Ecological Warrior Melons (green on the outside, but red on the inside). I don’t feel I have to explain why Indigenous liberation and ecological protection go hand and hand. We are at a point where the majority of Americans realize we are running out of time with the system we have, and will begin to resort to desperate measures. With all the major chemical spills, nuclear leakage, and continued oil drilling, industrial sabotage seems like a reasonable means to an end for the public. There needs to form a radical guerrilla group with the goal of disrupting environmental devastation, a sort of carbon partisans. As these carbon partisans grow, they will open up with more and radical ideology and missions.-------
I realize I have completely skirted off the original topic, oh my lord. Hey at least its some discussion on this community haha. So what do you think, will Protracted Peoples Wars be possible?
I know some people are predicting a sort of civil war scenario in the US, and I wonder if that would be an opportunity for PPW. We could be like Lenin exploiting help from the Germans to take down Russia. The current surveillance network could be weakened in that event allowing us to do some actual guerrilla fighting.
I think people REALLY romanticize guerrilla fighting a lot… It’s not just about surveillance, there are several modern advancements that make guerrilla fighting in a modern nation ineffective at best and suicidal at worst.
Just look up any video of the ukrainian war. The ease and precision with which modern militaries can locate and hit targets is so high that even modern, trained soldiers find themselves with a thermobaric grenade on their lap while sitting inside a camouflaged bunker.
Also, the western population just does not have the skills to survive in a guerrilla settings. Most americans can barely cook, you think they have a chance at surviving and maintaining a healthy body while living as guerrillas? Vietnamese villagers definitely had that in them, Jaycee from the free greater Seattle area maoist polycule most likely does not.
The only people in the west who might have a chance at guerrilla fighting are former soldiers and such - a demographic which is not gonna be on our side
Even the Ukrainian government is shy to criticize China’s close relationship with Russia, due to their hopes of economic rebuilding.
Even Poland of all countries opposed direct US order to antagonize China.
Believe me, anyone whose actually paying attention in the military doesn’t either. At best, we’re hoping for a draw.
Nukes, but then everyone else also loses.
China has hypersonic ICBMS, which means they could technically counter US nukes. Whether they could actually achieve that (there’s ways to overcome these defences) is another thing, but certainly I’d expect that the nukes would be struck down somewhere over the Pacific.
I take it that nukes these days are made so that a specific process has to happen for the reaction to trigger, they can’t just detonate from being hit mid-air.
China has hypersonic ICBMS, which means they could technically counter US nukes
Yeah, USA admitted even the DPRK currently owned ICBM’s would be enough to reach and overwhelm their west coast defenses, and China have more and better ones, though the exact amount is unknown.
I’d expect that the nukes would be struck down somewhere over the Pacific.
Not really, no country have ability to nullify full or even partial scale nuclear deployment. It would stop some, but for example USA currently have 400 land and 280 sea based ICBM’s, each with multiple warheads. Not counting tons of shorter ranged missiles.
I take it that nukes these days are made so that a specific process has to happen for the reaction to trigger, they can’t just detonate from being hit mid-air.
Yes, afaik it isn’t completely impossible to detonate nuke mid air with hit from defense weapon, but the probability is extremely small.
