- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
You must log in or register to comment.
Lol Republicans want no penalty if he’s convicted, but I’m willing to bet those assholes would throw the whole library at any minority breaking the law or woman seeking an abortion.
I’m not super trusting of polls anymore, especially because they’re usually done by telephone. However-
The poll had a sample of 1,032 adults, age 18 or older, who were interviewed online; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for all respondents.
This makes me a little more trusting despite that whopping MoE. It sounds like bad news for Trump overall.
I have a related degree. The reason people distrust polls, is because the media frequently misreports or misrepresents them.
Eg. aggregated polling from the 2016 suggested Trump had a 1/3 chance of winning. If you believed some media coverage every poll said Clinton was certain to win. That was how the media reported on the polling, not the polling itself. Invariably Trump winning in 2016 was within the margin of error.
that whopping MoE
Not a large margin of error. You’re extrapolating from 1000 people to 300 million. It’s astonishing it’s that low if you think about it.
because they’re usually done by telephone
Not that common anymore. Often they’ll do a a telephone poll then supplement it with online or other methods. Here’s IPSOS’s article about this poll:
The study was conducted online in English. The data for the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, and political party affiliation. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2022 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post telephone polls.
Ok, fair enough. I defer to your expertise.
My biggest issue with polls is that the media tout them as predictions, ignoring the fact that even if the data is 100% valid, circumstances can change dramatically in just a couple of days.
I maintain that polls are not actionable data for voters. They can help campaigns see trends and gauge the effectiveness of messaging, but they are useless to voters.
They can and do change in just a couple of days, but the real issue is that the media invariably fails to mention the margin of error or confidence interval.
It’s always Candidate A 51%, candidate B 49%. When in reality it’s inevitably something like “There’s 19/20 chance that candidate gets between 48.5-53.5% of the vote, and that candidate gets between 46.5-51.5% of the vote.”
And then when candidate B wins, the media will go “Why did the polls get it wrong?” when the election was always to close to call definitively.
Oh, and this is obviously ignoring the far more sinister use of misrepresented polling data, micro-demographically targetted thanks to big data harvested from social media. Think Cambridge Analytica algorithms which have determined that women in village X with one child and dog, being more likely to vote party Y, and then targetting them on social media with stories about the polls showing the result is a foreglone conclusion and that there’s no point voting.
Indeed, the problem isn’t polls themselves, assuming they’re well constructed they’re generally sound data, it’s the interpretation and packaging of it as reported to the larger populous that gets in the way. Sometimes it gets to the point of funny when someone does an infographic where 30% and 60% somehow appear to have the same weight.
Lies, damn lies, and statistics…
Not that it matters here, but in case you want to use them somewhere serious:
Populous is an adjective
Populace is a noun
Thus why I’m not a writer, but at least the intent was there 🙂
I’m doing good if it doesn’t look like a drunken baboon wrote it sometimes due to fat finger typing.
Considering people tend to view probability as 100% A, 100% B or 50-50, I’m not sure showing a 30-60 split as the same weight is really a bad choice…
Thanks! I really like how Lemmy users with expertise in their area can add nuance to a lot of reporting, it really matters.
The 2 percent of Democrats who don’t think he’s guilty are suspect at least.
I’m not super trusting of polls anymore
Like, do you not believe the people responded the way they say they did?
No, I’m just not certain it’s an accurate sample. Polls were way off in 2020 and 2016.
They actually weren’t though. Trump lost the popular vote by a huge margin in both cases, which is what was predicted.
Trump won within the margin of error in 2016.
They weren’t. Aggregated polling in 2016 gave Trump a 1/3 chance of winning. That’s not low. It’s actually quite likely. Him becoming president was invariably within the margin of error in many polls.
Eg. 2016
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
2020:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/house/
2022:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/
The media reporting on polls (and anything scientific for that matter) is universally abysmal, that’s why you mistakenly think otherwise.
deleted by creator
Define “accurate”. Define “way off”. What do you think a poll tells you?
What you’re upset about is how you’re interpreting polls - and I guarantee you you’re doing it wrong.
90% chance is not a guarantee success. 30% chance is not a guarantee fail. They’re probabilities.
This poll, taken alone, tells you what these people think. It’s not a prediction and by itself doesn’t really say much. Taken in aggregate with other polls you can start to form an idea. But NO POLL will ever tell you the future.
Most polling is done via landline phone. Thus polling does reflect well on the actual voting population.
It would probably particularly represent older voters, who might lean towards Trump. Although I’m over 60 and white and answer the landline phone, and I abhor him and get more progressive every day. Come to think of it, I also hang up on pollsters, so…
I’m not so sure that’s true anymore. I don’t go looking at every single study but I usually see a mix of landline, cell/sms, and online samples
That is why I said most, not all.
About the Study
This Ipsos poll was conducted August 18-21, 2023 on behalf of Politico Magazine, using the probability based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a representative sample of 1,032 U.S. residents, age 18 or older, including 272 Republican respondents, 321 Democratic respondents, and 319 independent respondents.
The study was conducted online in English. The data for the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income, and political party affiliation. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2022 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Party ID benchmarks are from recent ABC News/Washington Post telephone polls. The weighting categories were as follows:
Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45-59 and 60+) Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other, Non-Hispanic, Hispanic, 2+ Races, Non-Hispanic) Education (Less than High School, High School, Some College, Bachelor or higher) Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West) Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro) Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+) Party ID (Democrat, Republican, Independent, Something else)
The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.08 for all adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 6.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the sample of Republicans. The margin of error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.08 for Republicans. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.8 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the sample of Democrats. The margin of error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.11 for Democrats. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5.7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the sample of independents. The margin of error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.09 for independents. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.
Bad news, the court of public opinion has or should have little to no bearing on legal proceedings.
But hey great news, the court of public opinion has or should have little to no bearing on legal proceedings.
The court of public opinion has a lot to do with an election, however. And that’s the problem for Trump now.
Yep. Trump’s only way of actually staying out of prison at this point isn’t winning in an actual courtroom. It’s delaying the trials for as long as he possibly can and then winning the general election.
So polls that show he’s unlikely to be able to do so are indeed bad news for him.
Luckily for us, that can’t keep him out of Georgia prison. He can only pardon himself of federal charges. Granted I don’t think he has a chance in a general election. The Republican party is so screwed up they keep picking more and more extreme candidates even though those candidates usually lose in the general.
It shouldn’t be the case but it’s not unlikely that I’d he was already president, he would not be imprisoned while serving.
Impeachment is meant to be the way to remove him of that were the case but we’ve already seen that impeachment is now only a political tool for bashing your opponent when one party will exonerate trump from repurcuasions when clearly found guilty.
If he is president, he’d likely stay out of prison until he serves his term. At his age and health, he’d likely be dead by the end. When you’re facing prison at his age, postponing it for 6 years is as good as getting off.
It has a lot to do with it. Where do you think a jury comes from?
Jesus fuck, look at those republican numbers. Fucking cunts live in an imagined fascist state that they’re trying to make real.
I have some MAGA family who brush away all these indictments by saying, “The deep state doesn’t want him to win.”
I have no idea what it’s going to take for these cultists to drop their Trump
looks exactly like every other poll about him since like 2015
I don’t care what anyone thinks, including myself. I want the legal system to do its job correctly. Nothing more, nothing less.
