You just gotta love how US military say everything openly and in their reports. In particular, it has a forecast of US casualties and mobilization reserves in a conflict of this level.

Thesis:

  • military doctors project a [KIA and WIA] casualty rate for the US Armed Forces of 3,600\day.
  • The combat replenishment rate is 25% or 800 troops per day.
  • In 20 years of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. has lost about 50,000 people.

In a conflict of the Ukrainian level, the U.S. would suffer such losses in 2 weeks.

  • The recruitment shortage is a major problem.
  • every soldier not recruited today is a strategic mobility asset [IRR or reservists] that the US will not have in 2031**
  • IRR was 700K in 1973, 450K in 1994, now at 76K.
  • These numbers will not make up for the projected losses.
  • the 70’s concept of contract forces is outdated and does not fit the current operational environment.
  • The needs of the U.S. Armed Forces for a Ukrainian-level war require a transition to conscription.

  • Teapot [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    1 year ago

    Ok, maybe you should write the next article in the US Army War College journal. You clearly have much better info than those bozos

    • MechanicalJester@lemm.ee
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      1 year ago

      Generally a smart crowd. Someone may have ordered this analysis be done, but it is wildly speculative what if and not useful.

      I’ve won a couple arguments with Generals and met brilliant ones, and dumb ones.

      “What if we ignored all US war fighting strategy for a scenario where we have mostly a land war again like the good ole days” smh