You just gotta love how US military say everything openly and in their reports. In particular, it has a forecast of US casualties and mobilization reserves in a conflict of this level.

Thesis:

  • military doctors project a [KIA and WIA] casualty rate for the US Armed Forces of 3,600\day.
  • The combat replenishment rate is 25% or 800 troops per day.
  • In 20 years of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. has lost about 50,000 people.

In a conflict of the Ukrainian level, the U.S. would suffer such losses in 2 weeks.

  • The recruitment shortage is a major problem.
  • every soldier not recruited today is a strategic mobility asset [IRR or reservists] that the US will not have in 2031**
  • IRR was 700K in 1973, 450K in 1994, now at 76K.
  • These numbers will not make up for the projected losses.
  • the 70’s concept of contract forces is outdated and does not fit the current operational environment.
  • The needs of the U.S. Armed Forces for a Ukrainian-level war require a transition to conscription.

  • 420blazeit69 [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    1 year ago

    A draft wouldn’t start a civil war, but it would be a speedrun of the public’s response to the Vietnam War, including a disintegration of the Army’s ability to fight and direct action against recruiting efforts. We’d likely see much more support for that direct action, too.

    • KiG V2@lemmygrad.ml
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      1 year ago

      Unironically a draft would be the best opportunity for American MLs possible, short of federal bombing of American cities