Probably a fairly reasonable take. I don’t think Ukraine winning completely is a likelihood short of NATO bringing troops to bear. Even then, they have depleted so many of their own resources, I am not sure that would be enough. Despite all the equipment they are receiving, they don’t have the people to man them. A lot of that equipment requires significant amounts of training, and while Ukraine had a contingent of NATO-trained troops at the start of the conflict, they don’t anymore. It doesn’t matter how good a tank you have (and let’s be honest, an Abrams tank is not what Ukraine needs right now) if all you have to fill it are farmers who should never have been pressed into the position they are in.

Regarding the debt, I believe I have seen stories about how ukrainian workers are basically going to be indentured servants after the war. Western nations are probably salivating over the cheap labour they stand to gain in the aftermath, as depressing as that sounds.