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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • If you live inside the heart of the West, your life is still good enough—yes, even those struggling and clinging on the edges of poverty—and the bread and circuses still mostly work as distractions. But the world isn’t only the West. There are plenty in the other 6/7 of humanity who are willing to die for the hope of change. Life was hard before, but having endured impacts of a global pandemic, wars, and starvation, people are getting pushed to their limit. We are seeing many sparks of revolution starting to light on the dark prairie.

    How many of them are fighting for the “right” reasons? How many of them will end up in a better place? Nobody knows. But if even one or two turn into full-on fires, things will certainly get shaken up. And thereafter, unlike the Arab Spring days, there are Global South countries arising that are strong and wealthy enough to lend a hand, whose national interests lie toward helping regions to transition toward stability after any social blowups.

    At some point, change will come upon us, and we won’t have any say in how peaceful or violent it will be.




  • If they just want to stay out of the situation they wouldn’t make this statement, which sets forth their position very thoroughly: a two state solution based on 1967 borders. They’ve made this position clear for decades.

    Chinese influence is coming into West Asia without a doubt, but they do NOT intend to be another great power that has clearly picked a side, clearly favoring certain countries over others. Picking side is how the West had played things, divide and conquer, sow distrust. After all this time, all countries there KNOW the Americans will pick Israel above all others, and thus the US can never act as a genuine peacemaker, no one will trust them to be fair. Nor can Russia, which has picked their sides fairly clearly too. But China can, having established trade relations with many countries in the region, and therefore in a position to talk to all sides and actually have the believable neutrality to pass messages, promote negotiations, and maybe achieve something.

    I’m little frustrated, because it seems like people just want China to turn into another US, to interfere deeply with other countries’ internal affairs but just do so with whatever side that is different than what the West had traditionally picked. That doesn’t result in a multipolar world where great powers respect every country and regions’ sovereignty; that’s just tilting the world toward another pole. So they aren’t going to do it, there is clearly stated principles behind their stance.

    Finally, the Chinese historically did not played politics by using forceful power. For thousands of years, the way they dealt with foreign powers is through a system with tieres of BENEFITS and honors (apart from short aberration, such as Mao era). So they’ve always been more about the carrot than the stick, and now too they work more with dangling potential benefits to the West Asian countries in their effort toward providing more stability. It’s more about painting a picture to all the leaders about how great it would be if everyone is not fighting as much, the potential for prosperity, etc, which is always going to be a longer process than straight up sending violence.






  • OK, here’s a couple more that are famous and great for touristic reasons of history /culture /good food /great landscape /etc

    Xi’an (one of the ancient capitals of China, starting point of the traditional and new Silk Road), Guilin (every single time they show China in cartoon, with giant mountains and winding rivers, they’re basically showing here), Shenzhen (the new hyper modern high tech city), Guangzhou (old English name was Canton, as in Cantonese food), Suzhou and Hangzhou (historically famed for being chill and beautiful, lakes and canals etc), Hainandao (Chinese version of Hawaii), Nanjing (another ancient capital of China, lots of culture), Harbin (lots of Russian architecture here, and a FANTASTIC and huge ice sculpture show every year)




  • China has been working to increase the PLAN’s power and reach this past decade. They are nearing to a blue water navy at this point, and have broken through the first island chain, within which they are no longer considered to be defeatable without extreme cost.

    The US has withdrawn their concentration back to Guam (previously, they didn’t bothered to arm the second island chain).

    China has 20x the manufacturing power of the US and a bigger PPP (more efficient use of their military budget) , and they have known the US will one day come for them since Mao. Their recent ships are lighter in tonnage but newer than the American fleet by several decades, carries better equipment, radar, with greater fire power that makes them more equal to traditional ships one category higher in tonnage.

    Finally, they aren’t building a navy to project power around the globe like the US navy does. The PLAN intends to have the capability to defend their home waters and to protect their economic interests abroad, that’s it, so it will never need to have as many ships as the US navy, so a tonnage or ship number comparison would not be an accurate measure of the PLAN capabilities.



  • Japan is less holding a grudge than suffering from the deep fear that China, now powerful once more, will retaliate against them for their WWII atrocities. This belief is discussed above- and below-the-table among their right-wing politicians and intelligentsia. Who also happens to be in power. As China rises, they are increasing anxious at their inability to protect themselves. While extremely unlikely to engage in a hot war with China, Japan is suspected to be taking the opportunity of a loosening american stranglehold to build up their self-defense instead. Even now under immense US pressure, they will not do anything beyond “support” the US forces as a base for operations.

    NK will fully counter anything SK does. Nk sees all the recent US/Japanese joint military exercises in the area aimed against China as threatening them (which makes sense, given their history and perspective). Hence their recently becoming more and more vocal in their warnings.

    In geopolitics, no country will throw itself into a fight between two superpowers. Apart from some fighty words, which country is jumping at the chance to intervene in Ukraine?

    Taiwan is not a real option. It is a small island within direct military reach of the mainland, has 2% of mainland China’s population, 4% of its gpd. Even if NATO gave it all of their weapons, it has zero chances to do any real damage. Hence, the Taiwanese separatist base (33% of population) firmly believes that the US will send in its navy to fight FOR them, and are not at all imagining THEMSELVES as future freedom fighters (Taiwanese army at historic low membership this year). Its major benefit lies in that China has no intentions to destroy Taiwan, so things are unlikely to go too badly there.






  • If ALPS, this fancy amazing mysterious process, has actually successfully filtered out all 64 potentially irradiating elements in the water that had touched Fukushima’s exposed core, the inventers should be awarded ALL the prizes in the world for science, peace, betterment of humanity , etc. They should publish their process and results in all the science journals for the world to admire. For ye, all our nuclear fears are solved! Let nuclear energy proliferate hereon!

    But no. Japan refuses to let any other country do testing at release points. They budget 70 billion yen for PR purposes for a release program that only cost 34 billion yen (cheapest option out of 5). They conduct a test for only 2 elements, saying their safe levels mean the water itself is entirely safe.

    All this can be resolved SO EASILY if they just allow scientists from affected countries to check the process and test the water at regular intervals, then publish their result to indicate continued safety. Korean people won’t have to demonstrate on the street by the 50,000, China/HK/USA/etc will instantly permit importing their seafood again. Folks will stop hoarding salt, and all can take a deep breath and chill. Win win.

    But they won’t.