What a time to be alive. As it seems now, I was entirely wrong, as was ‘conventional’ political wisdom. May I continue to be wrong. It’s a welcome failure, as far as I’m concerned.
I figured there was a 1% chance of Biden dropping out, but also thought that Kamala would be a better candidate than him, but was also skeptical that Kamala would be able to beat Trump.
So…basically wrong on the first, correct on the second… yet to be determined on the third.
I did not expect the Democrats to actually do anything that would actually help themselves, figuring that they are far too ossified and out of touch.
Currently the Trump and the Republicans seem to stun locked by the ‘they’re just weird’ angle… which is amazing to me in two ways:
One, that after basically 3 decades of spewing lies and hate and insults against their opponents in the form of coordinated talking points to respond to basically every political development, they cannot handle the mildest possible form of this being used against them.
Two, that the Democrats finally actually collectively did something ‘aggressive’ rhetorically. Years and years of ‘taking the high road’ and acting morally superior to their opponents… they finally actually did something (collectively) that makes them not seem like hoity toity cloistered intellectual snobs.
That, and
MikeTim Walz is actually surprisingly relatable and charismatic.*Tim Walz
Derp. Thanks.
Yep, I was wearing that clown makeup too. Dems have not impressed me much lately with being able to deliver a coherent and effective message, so I was fully prepared for a shitshow of disarray if/when Biden dropped out.
It was very surprising to me how effectively they were able to leave Trump stumbling just as he seemed to be on the upswing. The utter lack of disorder around it almost feels like Biden was planning to drop out of the race all along, just waiting for the right moment… but that’s probably giving him too much credit.
What clown makeup? Biden was the presumptive nominee. I wasn’t pro Biden, I was pro Democrat in the Whitehouse. Trump in prison.
I still am, though I acknowledge I was wrong about who the nominee was gonna be.
I personally underestimated the support Harris would get. I remember lots of progressives being unhappy with her back in 2020, due to her background as a prosecutor.
Between that and the obvious reasons Republicans would go after her, I figured it would be an uphill battle.
Very happy to have been wrong!
I’m with ya there.
Right there with you
exact same
Did you learn anything?
That conventional political wisdom is getting less applicable with every year since the hell-date of 2016?
Yeah, unprecedented event after unprecedented event. Still you could’ve been vindicated if anything mildly unfortunate had happened before the DNC. Like if Harris picked a different VP, if Vance was actually in any way adept, etc. And hey, knock on wood, but you could still be right in the end – we probably shouldn’t count our chickens before they hatch.
Good on you though for being a good sport about your previous comments. I was on the “drop out” side (not that Biden would drop out, but I thought pretty much anyone else would have a better chance), but at the end of the day I kinda think we’re all talking out of our asses to a certain degree, because political science isn’t actually a science at all.
It’s a wild time for sure. If I knew senators were going to quote 4chan when discussing policies… Man what a time.
That’s actually really great! 1000 kudos to you
Why do you think political wisdom wasn’t applicable in 2016 and hasn’t been since?
I think that’s is really one of the most important things we need to try and understand and I don’t think it’s mainly due to the Internet being a factor.
My guess is it’s moreso due to the influence of money on political campaigns, the influence of mega-corporations on the job market, and all the offshoring of jobs in the last few decades. The terrible state of our education system really doesn’t help either
Why do you think political wisdom wasn’t applicable in 2016 and hasn’t been since?
I think that’s is really one of the most important things we need to try and understand and I don’t think it’s mainly due to the Internet being a factor.
The internet, globalism, the collapse of Rhine Capitalism in favor of neoliberalism and reactions against it, the lack of a clear ideological ‘enemy’ to face… it could be any number of things. All I know for sure is that we’re living in ‘interesting times’, and it’ll likely continue to be ‘interesting’ for a while before any new ‘conventional’ wisdom can be made.
What’s to be learned? What is weak logic about the mainline, presumptive nominee, who is a sitting president, who one way or another was the only human being to beat trump in an election, would become the actual nominee and democratic candidate?
That is not a bad bet, or bad logic, if we are sitting in March or April.
For example, you could note that “only human being to beat Trump in an election” is a really small sample size. It’s equally true to note that so far, Hillary is the only Democrat to lose to Trump in an election. The performance post-switch would indicate Trump is not a uniquely dangerous and persuasive candidate, but that his opposition was uniquely weak so far.
Idk, I asked someone else in this thread that and they had a great answer. They mentioned how the way we predict elections has changed since 2016 (or something) and I thought that was super interesting and worth reflecting on. If I answered your question right now it might be something simple like age or someone with a better understanding of history might mention how the current level of wealth inequality compares to previous moments in history
That said, I’m not sure why this similar comment was seen as more offensive. This is literally something I try to do myself when someone I trust is wrong about something. I might not cancel em or whatever but I’ll try to understand what went wrong or maybe just stop listening to them about certain topics they’re consistently wrong on
Wealth inequality has fuck all to do with a reader’s assessment of election candidacy, especially when the primary source (the candidate) is emphatic about their intent to run.
By all available signal, Biden fully intended to run until after the debate, where the cracks formed, other candidates were discussed, and Harris stepped up.
To suggest otherwise could only be arrived at by wish, or reliance on a more distant, less direct source, which is a worse bet.
Idk, even Nancy Pelosi didn’t accept Biden’s words. So, it’s wild, to me, that an informed citizen would simply accept things the way they’re told they are. Maybe this isn’t about “sources” and more about pundits and narrative-makers/builders - the ones that decide who is “electable”. Not everyone accepted the narrative that Biden wouldn’t step down. Some even had the narrative that he must step down and apparently they were “right” - for lack of a better word (sorry for any poor communication)
That said, you’ve clearly made up your mind and you don’t really seem interested in entertaining this idea, so we really don’t have to keep going
May we continue righting more of PugJesus’ wrongs
Not a failure. These are strange times
Agreed. I really didn’t expect the quick rally. I’m even more impressed with citizens than Kamala’s campaign. It’s restorative.
Honestly, I had forgotten about Kamala when arguing that Biden was the best bet. My argument always lay in, “Needs to be familiar because Trump has this uncanny ability to swamp somebody without a track record”, and I completely forgot Kamala fit that exactly in the same way Biden did - By being a VP
SO glad I was wrong, too - It was a lot of me groaning, “Oh god Biden is our best bet dear fuck no…”
I think I let myself be misled about the urgency of having a candidate ready and the time for campaigning. Meanwhile, other countries gear up their elections in less than a month.
Many of us misled ourselves about the “obligation” or “strategic advantage” of there always having to be a two-term attempt. The fact that Joe chose Kamala as VP, and decided to retire after one term, speaks VOLUMES about why I trusted and trust him as president and as a fellow human, and how it pissed me off to hear people saying that both parties are the same.
Anyway… Joe Biden’s legacy will now most certainly be a positive one. As I knew it would be.
Yeah. He’s never going to be remembered as positively as Obama, Obama was a cultural phenomenon and remains one of the best orators alive, but he will likely be remembered as a man who genuinely held beliefs and cared about his country enough to grow and change with the times. Biden was the president we didn’t necessarily want but aren’t mad to have had anyways.
It was that plus the “if Biden drops out it will be a whole ordeal establishing a new candidate.” It wasn’t. It was quick, painless, and even the VP choosing was relatively quick and made people happy.
I wasn’t on board with Kamala until she picked Walz as her running mate. I was honestly going to vote for Vermin Supreme until then.
Imagine if all the undecideds went to Vermin Supreme and he actually won… better than Trump of course, but wow
You’re still completely missing the point.
It could have been Tim Walz and no one knew his name before Biden dropped.
The “name recognition” is just bullshit.
99.99% of what neoliberals say they dont even believe, they just say whatever gets them what they want
They wanted Biden, so they just spewed diarrhea onto keyboards throwing everything at the wall hoping something will stick.
But they knew all along that Biden was the worst option, they were just willing to risk trump again than anything a smidge to the left more than Bidens 82 year ass.
Please learn the lesson this time, they’ve been doing it for decades, and show no signs of stopping
The most conservative wings of a political party almost never are on the same side of the rest of the party. Please, for the love of God stop fucking falling for it.
This is garbage discourse towards someone who literally said they are adjusting their perspective.
Thanks, your post history is blatantly what I’m talking about
Good for you, print it out or something.
No need to be so toxic to those you’re speaking to, it fails your point and ruins whatever platform you argue from.
I’m not saying IM of some high position, mind you.
I didn’t even mention neoliberals smugness…
But I don’t need anymore examples, and I know y’all love the last word. So feel free to reply to any of my comments you see. You’ll always get the last word now
Don’t count your chickens before they are hatched. The election isn’t over. This nations racism, sexism, and sheer stupidity might be too much to overcome.
And just because she wins doesn’t mean it goes away either.
And just because she wins doesn’t mean she wins either.
There are election deniers all over the country in important places and they’re going to act up after the election refusing to certify their election results. SCOTUS could end up rubber stamping a Trump win in a scenario where it’s up to them to solve a legal dispute…
They didn’t know about Walz. Seriously, wtf Democrats? It seems you have a treasure trove of untapped talent but you still wheel out barely alive corpses like it is the Imperium in WH40K. Let the next generation take over. The Old Ones should step back and turn into advisors and elder statesmen.
Dems can’t dig too much into their talented and passionate base. They have to find waffling liberals more interested in keeping the status quo.
Still so much better than anything the Republicans could muster but don’t be fooled.
They have to find waffling liberals more interested in keeping the status quo.
Bingo.
Yep, I was one of those people, but I’m happy that I was wrong about it.
Doing an “I told you so” on people who are happy to be wrong is pretty silly.
that’s why i gave kudos to those people instead last month https://lemmy.world/comment/11376547
the fears were wrong but understandable. if AOC wasn’t sure there was enough support behind Harris you’re allowed to be wrong too.
now there’s great and unified energy behind the democratic party for the first time since Obama. just enjoy it and try your best to keep it up. going for an “i told you so” right now is petty.
Yeah, the “I told you so”s feel like infighting just to fight your own side
i mean there was some infighting at the time, and i participated in it saying he should drop out. other people were saying he shouldn’t. that’s infighting and it makes sense. people were in disagreement about what should be done next.
but now it’s over. there’s pretty much unanimous consensus that it was the right thing to do. now that there’s no disagreement, bringing up the time where there was, just to feel better about yourself is silly and pointless.
now that there’s no disagreement, bringing up the time where there was, just to feel better about yourself is silly and pointless.
Hard disagree.
This is a teachable moment that should be treated as an opportunity for growth.
Everyone who was wrong about the need for Biden to drop out of the race needs to do some introspection so that they don’t repeat the flawed political analyses that led them to support the wrong primary candidate.
that is not at all what this is about
It needs to be said. If we can’t acknowledge how contradicting narratives were fed to us within the same month, then it shows an alarming lack of cognitive dissonance on our part.
There are people on Lemmy who argued that Biden is not our best bet against Trump; they were told that Biden was the best that the party can do and that there was not enough time to replace Biden. Now, we’re all supposed to move on like that didn’t just happen.
That said, I am pleasantly surprised to see the community admitting the mistake. I assumed this post would be downvoted heavily but the post felt necessary for the reasons above.
Don’t get cocky, vote!
Get other people to vote.
I won’t pretend to know how it would have gone either way. Had it actually not happened in the timeline that it did happen, it could have easily been different. The momentum, the media narratives, the quickness with which the Democrats united behind Harris, all of these things caught most everyone by surprise. I could see any of those things being wildly different had Biden chose to step down much earlier. We don’t like to admit it, but irrational, unknowable elements like “vibe” and “timing” have always played a huge role in elections.
I didn’t know what to think about Biden dropping out but I’m glad it’s taken a turn for the best. It was a bold move and it paid off.
Bold, yeah… In the same way that jumping out of a moving vehicle headed towards a cliff is bold.
Yeah though I’ll say two things in our defense: 1) it was a reasonable stance given the information we had, and 2) we’ve been some of the most proud to accept and admit that we were wrong people I’ve ever seen talking politics on the internet.
I disagree on #1, it only seemed like a reasonable stance because you were not exposed to information that would contradict it and were never trained to analyze political bias so you wouldn’t realize that the avoidance of the topic was significant.
I double-minored in Futures Studies and Political Science during postgrad, and predicted that the Democrat incumbent would have to drop out of the race to give their party a chance all the way back in 2016 when the DNC conspired against Bernie’s campaign. For those of us who know how to read between a propagandist’s lines, this has been an inevitability for a long time.
So you’re saying that if we have a phd in this we would be expected to know better? Pardon me, I only got a bs in something unrelated to political science so when I look at the political situation I attempt to see what is most realistically close to what I want. Seeing as I didn’t see experts coming out of the woodwork on this, and instead saw a party with a tendency to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory considering throwing away an incumbent advantage on a president I’d been surprised on how much I approved of his actions after I’d held my nose for him in 2020, I guess I just think that for yokel voters like me it was a reasonable perspective because the only arguments I saw were basically “he’s too old and he’s fucked”. Also it sure seemed unlikely to happen and a bit late to demand it.
So you’re saying that if we have a phd in this we would be expected to know better?
Nah, I’m saying that Americans aren’t taught about politics, they’re lucky if they can make it through high school with a basic understanding of how the state is arranged.
A real education system would make American politics much less predictable, because it woild empower Americans to shape their own future.
All the people who said I was helping the orange man by asking for a better candidate can tell me they’re sorry. Yeah right. They’re the same ones telling us to shut up about Gaza.
I had no confidence that the Democrats could coalesce around another candidate, in time for the convention.
I’m honestly flabbergasted
I don’t know if I ever talked to YOU about it, but I definitely said a few times that it was too risky to change candidates, even though Biden was polling terribly. I’m very happy to eat my hat now!
Yeah, in the same boat. I thought they needed to stick with him because of advantage incumbents have, and I didn’t think we had time to promote a new candidate. Very happy to be wrong about that! I don’t care about the change, I’m just happy to go with whoever has the best chance at winning
I genuinely didn’t think someone else was positioned to take on the campaigning. I’m glad I was wrong.
Yo I don’t think we spoke but I was someone saying Biden would be the nominee. I even said things like it’s unlikely or impossible there will be another D candidate.
I acknowledge I was wrong on that part. I also acknowledge as the season wore on Biden clearly displayed himself as not fit to run, and a replacement was a good idea.
In general I focused and continue to focus on those who say “stay home or vote 3rd party” as that is an issue in the face of project 2025 and other obvious trump stuff.
So my argument wasn’t “omg vote for grandpa Biden he’s the best” it was “let’s keep trump out of the Whitehouse, a Democratic candidate is the only option, and Biden is currently the likely nominee.”
Also, keep talking about Gaza, it’s important.
Everyone is happy to be wrong. This isn’t the flex you think it is lol
It’s not a flex. It’s a statement about how much is still lacking.
Maybe you should read your comment again cuz it’s definitely not a “statement about how much is still lacking”.
“We need a better candidate” is a different cry altogether.
I still feel they’re taking a huge risk and they could still fail miserably like every other time before, but we have no comparative data for a differential anyway.
I still worry they made the wrong choice but they did so the best way possible, and I hope it works out for them. I still have my fears but I sure hope they’re just that.
Feels a wee bit early for the “I told you so” stuff. She’s currently losing in the betting odds.
Edit: it’s good to be wrong
For one thing, it’s an even worse metric than polls. For another:
Interesting, I’ve heard the opposite in terms of betting odds v. traditional polling. Good to know it changed though as Trump was like +5 as recently as like 2 days ago. Thanks for posting.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
2 days ago was probably before the DNC opened, ever day has seemingly been throwing that shit from Back to the Future 3 in the hypetrains engine.
Music to my ears. Thank you for lifting my spirits. We just all gotta vote.
Around the time this article was posted, I largely agreed with AOC, even though I was very worried about Biden’s stubbornness leading to his loss in November despite his capability of being an excellent leader.
But the fact that the party was able to resist chaos, keep steady on a Biden-lite agenda through Harris means that the Dems have vastly outperformed my expectations in the last month.
I will let Lemmy decide if I need to hold myself to account for my comment pledging money to charity if a “spry and progressive” candidate succeeded him. Does Harris count as spry and progressive?
And Done! Lemmy has spoken!
Does Harris count as spry and progressive?
Surprisingly, yes!
I expected the Dems to support the same tired high road taking boring candidate so I wanted Biden to be kept around for brand recognition because that seemed to be the only thing the Dems would accept. I absolutely did not expect Kamala to come out guns blazing on memes, engaging the GOP on their level instead of taking the high road, and then picking the absolute best example of a human being possible as VP. I expected the Dems to discourage all of those things in favor of some stoic white guy safe choice.
I am extremely happy to have been wrong and it is great to see the Dems catch on that this kind of campaign will be successful.
Still, I imagine they’re pretty happy about being wrong.
You realize they’re the same people who tried to start a national movement for Dems to vote R because Obama beat Hillary, right?
Like. Biden supporters did t just appear overnight. They’re the people who voted R till Bill Clinton in the 90s, and they’re very used to getting what they want, can’t accept when they dont and constantly project
There’s not.many of them, they just never shut up and are the ones currently running the DNC.
Nope, I had no idea. I’m not American. In fact, I don’t even know who you’re referring to as “R.”
But I thought about how I would feel if it was me and I through, yeah, I’d feel pretty silly but I’d also be happy about being wrong.
I just thought it would be fair to them to mention it.
It sounds bad though, whatever it is. That definitely came across.
They aren’t right, they’re projecting on us. A lot of us are here and thought it was a bad strategic decision before it happened but are happy it went as well as it did
Gee, thanks for viewing the downfall of our country like a soccer match and voicing your opinion on what we should do I guess.
I mean, there’s practically no way to avoid hearing about your elections, might as well make it slightly more bearable.
That’s what they looked like at the time they were made too. Was so wildly disconnected from actual day-to-day opinions. Best argument at the time could have been “Biden won’t drop out and the DNC won’t do anything about that, so we should try to make the corpse look as appealing as possible.”
Basically accepting inauthenticity from the get go and acting like no one can tell, all the while criticizing anyone that asks them to defend their position
guilty
